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As someone who’s spent over two decades helping clients find the right home in the GTA, I’m always watching how shifts in housing supply affect real people. Recent improvements in affordability may feel like a relief, but they’re on shaky ground. With new home construction—especially for those looking to own—slowing down, there’s a real concern that we won’t have enough homes to meet future needs. Recent estimates say we’ll need 417,000 to 469,000 new housing starts every year to bring affordability back to where it was before the pandemic by 2036, yet the gap hasn’t really changed.

Most of the new homes being built are rentals, while ownership-focused construction has dropped off—even as more rentals help balance things out a bit. Yes, slower population growth has provided a little breathing room, but building has actually slowed faster than demand. That means even with a softer market, we could fall behind again when demand picks up.

For families, newcomers, and investors alike, the message is clear: keeping ownership options available matters if we want to avoid an even bigger supply crunch down the road. I always aim to guide clients of all backgrounds through these shifts—because understanding the bigger picture helps all of us plan for a more secure future.

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Navigating Ontario condo closings has become more challenging lately, with some buyers finding themselves owing up to 30% above the current market value of their units. The gap between the original contract price and today’s appraised values has left many unable to secure enough mortgage funding, since banks only lend based on the lower, present-day value. Much of this stems from the lengthy delay between pre-construction agreements and final closings—drawn out by pre-sales, city approvals, permits, and even labor shortages. In a shifting market, these delays can upend even the best-laid plans. In previous seller’s markets, we saw developers cancel contracts when costs soared, leading to provincial attention and calls for stricter oversight. The contracts for these pre-construction condos often leave buyers with few options to walk away—typically just a 10-day cooling-off period or if occupancy deadlines aren’t met. Having spent over two decades guiding buyers and investors through Greater Toronto’s changing landscape, I know how important it is to understand every detail before signing. These situations remind us all to be vigilant and well-informed at every stage of the condo buying journey.

Ontario’s recent HST rebate for new homes has been a real talking point among those of us who follow the market closely. Many industry voices believe these temporary tax breaks are a step in the right direction, suggesting that easing taxes can genuinely help with affordability, boost buyer confidence, and encourage more activity in the market. But there’s a growing consensus that a more permanent solution would have a much bigger impact—especially when it comes to spurring new construction.

From where I stand, working with buyers across the GTA, I see firsthand how builders face mounting costs for materials and labour, along with slow approvals and a maze of rules. Taxes and fees can make the difference between a project moving forward or stalling. This was especially true during the rollout of the temporary HST relief, when both buyers and developers were left waiting for clear guidance, which limited the program’s reach while housing activity stayed sluggish.

Highrise condos, in particular, have felt the pinch. Since these projects take years to come together, short-term tax policies often don’t provide the certainty needed to get shovels in the ground. Looking ahead, many are calling for permanent HST relief—or even the complete removal of the tax on new homes—as Ontario aims for the ambitious goal of 1.5 million new homes by 2031.

As someone who helps clients from all walks of life—including newcomers and self-employed professionals—I know how crucial these policy shifts can be. Every step toward making new homes more accessible matters to the families and investors I work with every day.

As someone who's spent over two decades helping clients navigate the GTA real estate landscape, I’ve seen how market trends can impact different buyers in distinct ways. This year, the average GTA home sold for $993K in mid-Q3 2026—a modest 3% dip from last year, signaling a more relaxed market for buyers. For those eyeing condos, the average price sat at $618K, again slightly lower than 2025. But it’s the micro-condos—units under 500 sq-ft—that faced the steepest depreciation. These compact spaces have become harder to sell, as buyers now find themselves with access to larger homes and more negotiating power. In early Q3, nearly every GTA neighborhood with at least five condo sales saw properties close below list price, giving buyers considerable leverage. Even single-family homes weren’t immune, with underbidding evident in about 92% of neighborhoods. Yet, condos felt the effects most, especially as investor demand has cooled and certain investor-friendly units linger longer on the market. With experience guiding everyone from first-time buyers to downsizers and investors, I know that understanding your unique needs is key to finding the right fit in shifting markets like this one.

Buyer competition across the GTA has softened even further this Mid-Q3, with just 2% of qualifying neighbourhoods seeing homes sell above asking—a dip from 3% earlier in the quarter. Out of 267 neighbourhoods analyzed, 97% saw homes sell below their listed price, and only 1% matched the asking price. Bidding wars, once a hallmark of our local market, are now few and far between. What’s especially interesting for both single-family and condo buyers: the gap is narrowing. 95% of single-family neighbourhoods and 98% of condo areas saw underbidding. With 4,200 homes sold, 79% changed hands below asking—up from 78% early in Q3. For those navigating the GTA’s evolving landscape, it’s a quieter time than we’ve seen in a while. My approach has always been to help clients—whether newcomers, families, or seasoned investors—understand how shifts like these can open new doors, often without the frenzy that once defined our market.

Big news for Vaughan families and anyone considering a move: our city could soon benefit from up to $697.2 million in support from provincial and federal governments, thanks to Vaughan’s proactive approach to reducing residential development charges. Since March 30, 2026, these charges have been roughly halved, and as of February 25, 2026, qualifying residential projects can see the charges eliminated altogether. This bold move is estimated to reduce new home building costs by as much as $98,000. When combined with available HST relief, the potential savings for buyers could reach $230,000—a significant difference for families, first-time buyers, and those looking to make the most of their investment.

The city anticipates that these changes, paired with essential infrastructure upgrades—from water and stormwater improvements, to wider roads, a new Highway 7 bridge, and a new fire station—could open the door to more than 120,000 new housing units. This means more choice and improved affordability for both buyers and renters.

Of course, these benefits will depend on key agreements and project approvals, but it’s encouraging to see such strong steps toward unlocking housing opportunities in Vaughan. Having guided clients through the ever-evolving GTA landscape for over two decades, I know how impactful these kinds of changes can be for every stage of life—whether you’re just starting out, growing your family, or planning your next investment.